Let’s begin. I do not take the Donald Trump 2016 campaign seriously, particularly not as presenting America with a viable presidential candidate. This isn’t because “he can’t win.” In fact, he has the resources and access to the kind of team that could mount a serious challenge to other Republican candidates. With a team that mounts a campaign similar to the ones described in my book, “Mapping the Road Less Travelled,” and a serious effort given, Mr. Trump could become at the very least, the partisan nominee.
But he won’t.
What Donald Trump does is far more effectual. He will help steer debate and in effect, remove far right of center candidates from the field by proposing their ideas in very distasteful, brash and in some cases, offensive ways.
As in the case of his comments regarding immigration reforms, he will take stands on a variety of issues that are far right of center, and phrase his positions in inflammatory terms that make it difficult to defend. In this way, he will make such positions uncomfortable for his competing candidates, and those who wish to continue to compete will be forced away from his positions. Those who attempt to stay close to Trump on these issues will profit very little, as the messenger of his own personal platform, he will absorb the populist “everyman on the right” support — while those remaining near his positions will be eliminated from serious contention.
Those candidates who move closer to the center, and practice pragmatic political “statesmanship” will benefit with higher poll numbers and an opportunity to show a willingness to build consensus on the issues, by shifting to the larger middle ground where Americans tend to gather, if not usually until after the primaries.
In fact, Trump’s remarks take the leading concerns previously voiced by right leaning conservatives, and boil them down into a single brash, reactionary and offensive statement. The top concerns about illegal immigrants have always been their effects on: 1) National defense and security, 2) Crime, and 3) Jobs. Trump took these concerns, and trivialized them by oversimplifying and overstating them in an easy to understand and hard to support statement.
On immigration, this phenomenon has already been observed. Most media focused on the fact that even after making comments that led to the loss of several business contracts, Mr. Trump’s poll numbers rose, placing him second amidst the wide primary field. However, what has been little noted or discussed is that his increase in supporters came at the expense of “right leaning” insurgent candidacies, while ahead of Trump, rose Jeb Bush, who one poll showed at 19 percent, a higher percentage than any primary candidate in a large field of candidates, had seen prior to Trump’s emergence.
In the days following the very heated and public discussions of Trump’s remarks, Bush and others, wisely condemned them and moved toward middle ground on the issue, a position that is traditionally comfortable for Bush, but has been unpopular among more conservative voters in the past, and one that many further right Republican hopefuls would seize as weakness. With Trump firmly entrenched and at the center of the media storm, these less blusterous candidates lose their foothold, and Bush’s position becomes the default on the issue.
I do not have a crystal ball, but I would be comfortable hazarding a guess that this will become a pattern in regard to many more contentious issues. Mr. Trump will pose hardline far right positions on issues like immigration, international affairs, economic development and more, essentially absorbing the wind from the sails of the Tea Party and Libertarian Republicans, while ensuring the issues are debated openly by all, and resulting safe landings by mainstream candidates such as Bush, Rubio, Christie and a few others.
I am not a conspiracy theorist, and despite many who might see these strategic gaffs as almost coordinated, I am inclined to consider them as merely the natural result of Mr. Trump being the most nationally recognizable brand touting his ideas, and while I do not think he marginalizes the supporters of these ideas, by consolidating these supporters, he negates others who share his perspectives.
This first foray, yields a Bush victory, with Jeb climbing more than 5 points from his polling a week before, and while the next few may prop up other moderates, it seems more than likely that Jeb will be the ultimate beneficiary of Trump’s scrappy “Gruff and Tumble” campaign style.
While it remains months from being seen, is whether or not, the same will be true in the paid media mail and advertising campaigns and whether any of these will seize upon the opportunities in the long run. It is certainly true that in the earned media campaign, The Donald may be dealing Trump cards to establishment GOP favorites.
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